The final month of last year offered valuable insight into how global Dry Bulk trade evolved in 2025. Drawing on AXSMarine AIS-derived data combined with commercial datasets, December analysis highlighted notable shifts in grain demand, record-setting Steel flows, and continued concentration in the Nickel Ore market. Together, these developments illustrate how commodity fundamentals and regional demand shaped Dry Bulk shipping toward year-end.
Japan Emerges as the Leading Seaborne Corn Importer
Japan ranked as the world’s top destination for seaborne Corn shipments throughout the first 11 months 2025. Between January and November, Japanese ports discharged more than 15.5 million metric tons of Corn, reflecting a 3.5 percent year-over-year increase. This marked the eighth consecutive year in which Japan’s imports exceeded 15 million metric tons, underscoring the stability of its demand profile. With several weeks remaining in the year at the time of measurement, volumes were also on track to potentially exceed 16 million metric tons for the first time since 2019.
Egypt followed in second place, importing just over 10.5 million metric tons so far in 2025. This represented a sharp 40.8 percent year-over-year increase and lifted Egypt’s share of global seaborne Corn demand to 6.9 percent, up from 3.8 percent two years earlier.
South Korea and Vietnam ranked third and fourth, importing approximately 9.7 million and 9.4 million metric tons, respectively. Both markets, however, recorded year-over-year declines, with South Korea down 9 percent and Vietnam down 3.6 percent.
Despite strong performances by the leading importers, the Corn market remained highly diversified. Smaller importing countries collectively accounted for more than 42 percent of global seaborne Corn discharges in 2025.
China represented a notable exception to historical trends. After ranking among the top two Corn importers for five consecutive years, China accounted for less than 2 percent of global seaborne demand in 2025. The 2.8 million metric tons discharged since January reflected the impact of a large domestic harvest and elevated stockpiles and amounted to less than 10 percent of the record volumes seen in 2021.
Seaborne Steel Trade Reaches New Record Levels
Steel and Steel product flows continued to expand through December, pushing global seaborne volumes to new annual highs. With two weeks remaining in the year, bulk carrier discharges of Steel products including Billets, Coils, and Slabs exceeded 226 million metric tons. This already surpassed total 2024 volumes by 3.2 percent.
Based on cargoes already on the water and typical discharge patterns, total 2025 shipments were projected to approach 240 million metric tons. This would correspond to a 9.1 percent year-over-year increase and confirm 2025 as a record year for seaborne Steel trade.
Demand growth was not limited to traditional importing countries. While Turkiye, Indonesia, and Thailand remained major destinations, imports also increased across a broad group of smaller markets such as the UAE, Taiwan, Saudi Arabia, the UK, the Philippines, and Pakistan. This reinforced the highly diversified nature of the Steel trade, with even the largest importer, the United States, accounting for less than 8 percent of global market share.
On the export side, China strengthened its role as the dominant supplier. Chinese Steel exports reached 81.4 million metric tons in 2025, accounting for roughly 36.1 percent of total seaborne volumes and exceeding full-year 2024 exports by 15.4 percent.
Nickel Ore Exports Remain Highly Concentrated
Nickel Ore shipments continued to expand in 2025, driven primarily by exports from the Philippines. Since the start of the year, Philippine Nickel Ore shipments surpassed 50 million metric tons for the first time on record. Volumes were up 8.3 percent year over year and, given the seasonality of the trade, were expected to remain close to this level by year-end.
The Philippines accounted for 86.2 percent of global seaborne Nickel Ore supply in 2025. While slightly below the 87.4 percent share recorded in 2024, this remained well above the ten-year average of 74.9 percent, highlighting the market’s continued concentration.
New Caledonia ranked a distant second, exporting just under 4.7 million metric tons, an 11.6 percent year-over-year increase. However, volumes remained well below historical peaks recorded earlier in the decade. Côte d'Ivoire shipped approximately 1.1 million metric tons, down 24.4 percent year over year, while Guatemala recorded a sharp recovery, with exports rising 141.2 percent to just under 1 million metric tons.
Key Takeaways
December data highlighted several defining features of the Dry Bulk market in 2025. These trends demonstrate how commodity fundamentals, regional demand shifts, and export concentration shaped Dry Bulk trade at the close of the year. AXSMarine AIS-derived data combined with commercial datasets remains essential for capturing these dynamics with precision and confidence.
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